15% inflation target achievable in 2025 – Oyedele

 Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Could Drop to 15% in 2025 – Oyedele

The Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, has expressed confidence that Nigeria’s inflation rate could decline significantly in 2025, dropping from an average of 34.8% in 2024 to 15%.

Speaking at the PwC & BusinessDay Executive Roundtable on Nigeria’s 2025 Budget and Economic Outlook in Lagos on Thursday, Oyedele emphasized that ongoing economic and fiscal reforms would help stabilize inflationary pressures.

Inflation Drivers and Economic Reforms

Addressing the event’s theme, ‘Insights and Strategies for Navigating Nigeria’s Economic, Fiscal, and Policy Landscape in 2025’, Oyedele highlighted the key drivers of inflation in 2024, including:

• Foreign exchange volatility – with the naira fluctuating between ₦900 and ₦1,900 per dollar at different points in the year.

• Fuel subsidy removal, which pushed up transportation and production costs.

• High interest rates, which made borrowing expensive and slowed economic activity.

Despite these challenges, Oyedele was optimistic about a more stable economic environment in 2025.

“I hear people say achieving 15% inflation is impossible, but I disagree. Even if 2025 is as tough as 2024, inflation could drop to 25% due to the base effect. However, with the right reforms in place, we could see an even lower rate.”

He further stressed that government policies aimed at fiscal discipline and reducing money supply growth would help control inflation.

Oil Production and Foreign Exchange Outlook

On oil production and revenue, Oyedele noted that Nigeria’s crude oil output has improved, reaching 1.8 million barrels per day, close to the government’s 2 million bpd target. He also emphasized that stability in oil prices and sector investments would positively impact the economy.

Regarding foreign exchange liquidity, Oyedele highlighted key government measures:

• Reducing pressure on the FX market, with about $20 million saved daily.

• Expected tax reforms to generate $4 billion in additional revenue annually.

He also expressed optimism about the strength of the naira, stating:

“I don’t believe ₦1,500 per dollar is the fair value of the naira. As liquidity improves, we should see a recovery.”

Acknowledging Economic Hardship and the Path Forward

Oyedele acknowledged the difficulties Nigerians have faced due to recent reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and FX liberalization. However, he maintained that these policies were necessary for long-term economic stability.

“These reforms have been painful, but they were essential. For the first time, we are allowing market forces to determine prices, bringing greater transparency.”

Concluding, he urged Nigerians to remain patient and resilient, assuring that ongoing policy adjustments would yield positive results in the long run.